@Article{BurtonBeJoFeCaAn:2020:ElNiDr,
author = "Burton, Chantelle and Betts, Richard A. and Jones, Chris D. and
Feldpausch, Ted R. and Cardoso, Manoel Ferreira and Anderson,
Liana O.",
affiliation = "{Met Office Hadley Centre} and {Met Office Hadley Centre} and {Met
Office Hadley Centre} and {University of Exeter} and {Instituto
Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Centro Nacional de
Monitoramento e Alertas de Desastres Naturais (CEMADEN)}",
title = "El Niņo driven changes in global fire 2015/16",
journal = "Frontiers in Earth Science",
year = "2020",
volume = "8",
pages = "1",
month = "June",
keywords = "El Niņo, fire, burned area, emissions, carbon sink.",
abstract = "El Niņo years are characterized by a high sea surface temperature
anomaly in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean, which leads to unusually
warm and dry conditions over many fire-prone regions globally.
This can lead to an increase in burned area and emissions from
fire activity, and socio-economic, and environmental losses.
Previous studies using satellite observations to assess the
impacts of the recent 2015/16 El Niņo found an increase in burned
area in some regions compared to La Niņa years. Here, we use the
dynamic land surface model JULES to assess how conditions differed
as a result of the El Niņo by comparing simulations driven by
observations from the year 2015/16 with mean climatological
drivers of temperature, precipitation, humidity, wind, air
pressure, and short and long-wave radiation. We use JULES with the
interactive fire module INFERNO to assess the effects on
precipitation, temperature, burned area, and the associated
impacts on the carbon sink globally and for three regions: South
America, Africa, and Asia. We find that the model projects a
variable response in precipitation, with some areas including
northern South America, southern Africa and East Asia getting
drier, and most areas globally seeing an increase in temperature.
As a result, higher burned area is simulated with El Niņo
conditions in most regions, although there are areas of both
increased and decreased burned area over Africa. South America
shows the largest fire response with El Niņo, with a 13% increase
in burned area and emitted carbon, corresponding with the largest
decrease in carbon uptake. Within South America, peak fire occurs
from August to October across central-southern Brazil, and
temperature is shown to be the main driver of the El Niņo-induced
increase in burned area during this period. Combined, our results
indicate that although 2015/16 was not a peak year for global
total burned area or fire emissions, the El Niņo led to an overall
increase of 4% in burned area and 5% in emissions compared to a No
El Niņo scenario for 2015/16, and contributed to a 4% reduction in
the terrestrial carbon sink.",
doi = "10.3389/feart.2020.00199",
url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/feart.2020.00199",
issn = "2296-6463",
label = "lattes: 7181547335252993 5 BurtonBeJoFeCaAn:2020:ElNiDr",
language = "pt",
targetfile = "burton_el nino.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "28 abr. 2024"
}